Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
