Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Significant resources is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
